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The retaking of a key Mozambican port this week by a force involving troops from Rwanda may signal a turning point in the battle against a four-year Islamist militant insurgency.

It also upended regional geopolitics.

Mozambique is a member of the Southern African Development Community, yet President Filipe Nyusi dragged his feet in inviting troops from some of his nation’s staunchest traditional allies, such as Zimbabwe and South Africa. It meanwhile let in Rwanda, and by the time SADC’s troops arrived, the port of Mocimboa da Praia had been recaptured.

“It speaks to a lack of congruity in SADC,” said Douglas Mason, an associate at Eunomix, a political risk consultancy. Rwanda’s deployment is “quite unparalleled.”

South Africa is Mozambique’s biggest trade partner and Zimbabwe has a long military history with it. In the 1970s, Mozambique harbored the liberation army of former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, whose troops in the 1980s and 1990s helped quell a rebellion by Mozambican rebel group Renamo.

But this time Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party only reluctantly accepted their help even as the Islamists brought TotalEnergies’ $20 billion gas project to a halt and beheaded locals.

A multi-nation force would bring scrutiny to the affected region, Cabo Delgado, which is riven with ruling party patronage. Rwanda is less likely to look too closely, Mason said. “It’s no accident that Rwanda got there first,” he said.

It’s unclear what Rwanda gains from its deployment.

Still, Cassien Ntamuhanga, a fugitive accused of plotting against the government in Kigali who had applied for asylum in Mozambique was taken into custody on May 23. Ntamuhanga’s whereabouts are not publicly known since then. Human Rights Watch cited unidentified people saying he was seized on Inhaca Island by uniformed Mozambican security service agents.

While there are other Rwandan fugitives in Mozambique, neither government has commented on whether there will be cooperation on returning them to the east African country.

News & Opinion

Zambia Votes | Zambians are awaiting results from Thursday’s general election, in which incumbent President Edgar Lungu is seeking to beat main opposition leader, Hakainde Hichilema, to retain power. The government restricted access to WhatsApp, Facebook and other social media platforms, while voters in record numbers waited for as long as 10 hours to cast ballots. The final result is expected within three days after balloting closed.

Fintech Deals | Mobility startup Moove has raised $23 million to provide financing to Uber drivers to buy cars across sub-Saharan Africa. Moove, co-located in Uber offices in Lagos, Johannesburg and Accra, plans to launch in Cape Town and Durban by September. Meanwhile, Bank Zero in South Africa has opened for business, with a mobile app that offers accounts for retail and business customers, including in the informal sector. Somalia has set up a national payments system as part of plans to develop the financial industry following decades of political and economic instability.

National Service | Fighting in northern Ethiopia may intensify after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged citizens to join the army, which may add to the misery caused by nine months of civil war between the federal government and dissidents in the Tigray region. About 300,000 people face “emergency levels of hunger” in the Amhara and Afar states, where Tigrayan forces began an offensive after regaining most of their territory from government troops. Meanwhile, the premium demanded on Ethiopia’s 2024 Eurobonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has climbed to 987 basis points, the highest in Africa after Zambia.

Assets Transfer | Zimbabwe is pressing ahead with a plan to combine its mining assets under a private-public enterprise, even as evidence mounts that the project could be linked to a tycoon sanctioned by the U.S. and U.K. Previously unreported documents show that weeks after Kudakwashe Tagwirei was sanctioned by the U.S., his Mauritius-based Sotic International began plans to shift its assets to a newly-created Zimbabwean holding company called Ziwa Resources.

Virus Update | Kenya will require all government workers to receive at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine before Aug. 23 or face disciplinary action. Some staff members have opted not to get inoculated so they can continue working from home, which is hurting service delivery, according to the nation’s public service head, Joseph Kinyua. Guinea’s government plans to impose a similar directive -- requiring state workers and visitors to present a health pass before accessing public offices.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

• South African business confidence fell to a nine-month low in July, after a week of deadly riots, looting and arson cost the economy about $3.4 billion in lost output and imperiled at least 150,000 jobs.
• Ghana’s inflation rate rose to 9% in July from 7.8% in June. Consumer inflation quickened more than forecast after food, housing and transport prices surged.
• Nedbank’s headline earnings for the six months through June increased by 148% to about $357.3 million, but remained 24% below its first-half performance in 2019.

Safaricom’s shares climbed to an unprecedented 43 shillings on Tuesday in a rally that analysts think overvalued Kenya’s biggest company.

Coming Up

• August 16 Nigeria inflation for July
• August 17 Rwanda interest-rate decision, Southern African leaders meeting on Covid-19
• August 18 South Africa inflation for July, retail sales for June, Namibia interest-rate decision
• August 19 Botswana interest-rate decision
• August 20 Bloomberg’s August economic surveys for South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Angola, Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique, Rwanda and Botswana; Kenyan court to deliver judgement on constitutional amendment push

Last Word

Qatar National Bank asked a U.S. court to order Eritrea to pay nearly $300 million of debt after the Horn of Africa nation refused to participate in lawsuits. The Doha-based bank’s request came after Eritrea failed to respond to claims seeking to enforce a 2019 U.K. ruling. The quarrel centers on $200 million that QNB said Eritrea borrowed from it in 2009 and 2010, but defaulted on. QNB alleges that President Isaias Afwerki’s government went to drastic lengths to avoid being served with key documents. Officials at the Eritrean embassy in London locked one of the bank’s lawyers in the building until he agreed to leave without delivering documents, while another representative was “assaulted,” according to QNB’s filings. On one occasion, “the receptionist physically knocked the documents out of a process server’s hands and threw them on the pavement outside the embassy’s front door,” the complaint said. A British judge eventually allowed the bank to send paperwork by email or post.